Premier League best bets: Chelsea and Tottenham could be surprised

Newcastle may not offer too much from an offensive standpoint as they have the worst away goalscoring record outside the bottom three teams and a low-scoring game could well be on the cards.

Tottenham average less than two goals per game at Wembley in the league this season, scoring 20 in 11 matches but they have found a way to win without their most talented players, beating Fulham and Watford 2-1 in their two league matches without Kane and Alli.

With that in mind, it could be worth chancing a Tottenham win and under 2.5 goals at around 5/2.

Brighton v Watford

It’s always worth giving Brighton the benefit of any betting doubt when attempting to predict the outcome of their matches at the Amex Stadium.

Chris Hughton is in the middle of masterminding another season of top performances in front of his home fans and has continued to work wonders on one of the smallest budgets in the Premier League.

Hughton’s side may have disappointed when letting a two-goal lead slip away at Fulham in midweek but are good at bouncing back from away defeats, losing just once at home after suffering a defeat in their previous league game.

Watford were unlucky to lose 2-1 away to Tottenham in midweek and are inconsistent on their travels, winning four, drawing four and losing four of their 12 away league matches.

Another tight game is expected but  Brighton have lost just three times at home this season in the league to Tottenham, Chelsea and Liverpool, so are worth backing for the win at 6/4.

Burnley v Southampton

A crucial game at the bottom as both sides attempt to pull away from the relegation zone and it’s again the home side who should be backed.

Burnley have steadily improved since being beaten 5-1 at home by Everton on Boxing Day, with their sole defeat since coming away at champions Manchester City in the FA Cup.

Sean Dyche’s side have won three home games on the bounce since that Everton defeat, beating West Ham and Fulham in the league and defeating Barnsley in the FA Cup. They also picked up three away points at Huddersfield and picked up a creditable 2-2 draw at Old Trafford against Manchester United and a point at Watford.

With 11 points in their last five games, they are the most in-form team in the bottom half of the division and should be backed to continue their good run at 6/4.

Southampton have performed better on the road since the appointment of Ralph Hasenhuttl with wins at Huddersfield and Leicester and a draw at Stamford bridge against Chelsea but they have kept just one clean sheet since the Austrian took the reins and Burnley are more than capable of breaching the Saints defence.

Chelsea v Huddersfield

Chelsea dropped out of the Champions League qualifying positions after producing an abject performance when losing 4-0 to Bournemouth in midweek. That followed another poor display when losing 2-0 to Arsenal in the league and, despite beating Tottenham in the league cup semi-final, pressure is beginning to grow on Chelsea boss Maurizio Sarri.

Sarri locked his players in the dressing room for 45 minutes after the defeat against Bournemouth and is publicly criticising his team, a trait which has not gone down too well with Chelsea players in recent seasons.

Sarri will presumably welcome the visit of the league’s worst team to Stamford Bridge this weekend, with Huddersfield 12 points from safety.

New Huddersfield manager Jan Siewert saw his side beaten by Everton in his first game in charge but will have been heartened by his side’s performance. Huddersfield played well but again failed to find the net, with scoring goals the team’s achilles heel.

However, their away defensive record has not been too bad, with eight Premier League teams conceding more goals on the road than Huddersfield.

Chelsea have been held to a goalless draw by Southampton, drawn with Leicester and struggled to overcome Newcastle in their last three Premier League home games so it would not be a surprise if the game is tighter than many expect.

Chelsea are 1-5 to to come out on top, with Huddersfield priced at 18/1 and I might throw a pound or two on the away side at that price.

For those of you thinking that I’m mad, a Chelsea win and under 2.5 goals is available at around 12/5.

Crystal Palace v Fulham

So having finally got Fulham right when backing them to beat Brighton in midweek, I may be in need of medical intervention as I consider them backable again here.

WIth Fulham the only team in the Premier League yet to record an away win, I have started to question my sanity in advising them to beat their London rivals but here’s why they might be a good bet at 3/1.

Crystal Palace have scored only six goals in 12 matches at Selhurst Park and have scored more than twice in only two league games this season, against Liverpool and Manchester City away from home.

Roy Hodgson’s side have been beaten by Southampton, Watford and Wolves among others at home and have also been held to draws by newcastle and Cardiff.

Despite winning without Wilfried Zaha against Leicester in December, Palace still have an atrocious record without their best player, who is suspended after being sent off against Southampton in midweek, and it will be interesting to see if Hodgson selects loan signing Michy Batshuayi from the start.

If he does that would temper enthusiasm for Fulham, whose away record is abysmal, but they have plenty of goals in their side and the loan signing of Ryan Babel has proved a good one to complement Alexsander Mitrovic. This could be the day they break their away duck.

Everton v Wolves

It could be worth backing another outsider in this game with Wolves looking value at 9/4 to beat Everton.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s side were impressive when demolishing West Ham at Molineux in midweek and have lost fewer than half of their away games this season.

In contrast, Everton have struggled of late and were fortunate to beat Huddersfield in midweek after losing to Championship side Millwall in the FA Cup fourth round seven days ago.

One of Everton’s better players this season, left back Lucas Digne, is unavailable through suspension for this game, and his replacement could be set for a tough time against Wolves widemen.

Everton’s only wins since October 25th have come against teams positioned tenth or lower in the league and they struggle against better-quality teams. The fans at Goodison Park are not slow at expressing their displeasure and if Wolves keep things tight early, which they tend to do having conceded just two goals in the first twenty minutes of away matches this season, they can set the platform for success.

Cardiff v Bournemouth

Eddie Howe’s side ended an alarming run of form with home victories over West Ham and Chelsea in the last fortnight and are priced at 7/5 to beat Cardiff.

However, that looks too short given Bournemouth’s terrible away record, while Cardiff’s only home defeats since November 3rd have come against Manchester United, in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s first game in charge, and Tottenham.

Cardiff have beaten Brighton, Wolves and Southampton in three of their last six home matches and look overpriced to add Bournemouth to their victims at odds of 5/2.

Only Fulham have conceded more away goals than Bournemouth this season and they have not won an away game since beating Fulham 3-0 at the end of October.